Wait till next year, A Sox fan's prediction at All Star Break

The Chicago White Sox winning percentage is 0.511 at the All Star break at 45 wins and 43 losses. In order for the White Sox to get 90* wins by the end of the season they will have to win 45 of the 74 remaining games. The Sox will have to play 45/74 or 0.608 all through the season's end, Put another way they will have to take 3 of every 5 games or effectively win every series from now until the end of the baseball season.

Sox pitching is troublesome as they enter the second half of the season. Chris Sale is the only Sox standout with a half time record of 14 wins and 3 losses.  To have the same record Sale would have to end the year at 28 wins and 6 losses. Unfortunately even Chris Sale meets a physical limit and will not duplicate his first half effort. Aside from possibly Quintana the other pitchers on the Sox roster will not pick up the slack of Chris Sale's weaker second half.  

Although the Sox have some respectable team statistics with low errors and a team batting average at 0.251, the weaker pitching in the second half will not be enough to get the Sox to 90 wins, and will be out of the 2016 playoffs.

The Chicago Cubs have similar obstacles as the White Sox. The Cubs ended the first half at 53 wins and 35 losses, or 0.602 winning percentage. In order for the Cubs to get 90* wins by the end of the season they will have to win 37 of the 74 remaining games. The Cubs will have to play 37/74 or 0.500 all through the season's end. Put another way the Cubs will have to effectively at least split every series from now until the end of the baseball season.

In the last 38 games the Cubs had 18 wins and 20 losses for a winning percentage of 0.474. If the Cubs continue this record or even worse they will not reach 90 wins. Their pitching staff suffers from the same peril as the Sox. Arrieta will not repeat his first half effort at 12 wins and 4 losses, to get 24 wins and 8 losses. The Cubs have some pitchers that may pick up the slack such as Lester. But their team offensive statistics are average with high errors, team hitting at 0.256, and high strike outs. 

Put together with weakening pitching and unpredictable offense the Cubs will not be in the 2016 playoffs.

Just wait til next year.


*Season wins for a team at 90 is used as a benchmark to reasonably insure the team will be in the playoffs. It is understood that teams can make the playoffs with less than 90 wins. But at 90 wins the confidence is much higher for making and remaining in the playoffs.