Is it Finally Over for Mulder?

The much anticipated Arlington Heights Village Trustee election is now over. The final result was not a surprise as all incumbent candidates have retained their Village board seats. The following trustees were reelected and are listed in the order of most votes received: John Scaletta, Mike Sidor, Carol Blackwood, Robin LaBedz were re-elected as Village Trustees.

But let's look at the numbers behind this election. The voter turnout, according to David Orr Cook County Clerk, was 13.3% of the 47,172 registered voters in Arlington Heights on election day.  In other words, 6,267 brave souls made it to the polls. There were 20,907 total votes cast for an average of 3.34 votes per voter.

Sadly, that means 40,905 registered voters never even bothered to cast a ballot. The highest individual vote total went to John Scaletta with 4,030 votes or 9% of the registered voters. Inversely, 91% of registered voters did not vote for Mr. Scalletta. The election results can hardly be viewed as a mandate for any of the Village Trustees.

Now, consider the graph below. The block vote that was discussed in the article Bullet Voting vs. Block Voting appears to be alive and well during this election. The aforementioned article outlined that about 4,000 voters would pull together for all four incumbents. Additional verification of the block vote was evidenced by the narrow range of votes received by the four incumbents at 144 votes (Scaletta with 4,030 minus Labedz with 3,886). The narrow range of votes suggests that the incumbent candidates received the expected block vote. This is opposed to the challenger candidates of Harris and Schwingbeck that had a vote range of 636 votes and each far below the 4,000 votes.

So was there a split in the block vote as was characterized in Bullet Vote for Sidor and/or Blackwood Only or did bullet voting for Sidor and Blackwood make up for the block vote that went to Harris and Schwingbeck? Arlene Mulder, ex-Village President, supported the two challengers of Harris and Schwingbeck over incumbents Sidor and Blackwood which would appear to split the block vote for those two incumbents.

But, the final vote total does not support a split in the block vote, after all, as the above graph demonstrates. The fact that the incumbent vote totals were so close (around 4,000) suggests the block vote is alive and well. Mulder's support of the two challengers was negligible, and it seems she has lost her significant influence over local elections.

How to Beat the Block: 'Vote for One Candidate Only'

Easier said than done, but a simple strategy to beat the block is for 4,000 voters to bullet vote for just one candidate which allows the challenger candidate to at least get even with the block endorsed candidates. In theory, the task of finding 4,000 out of 47,172 registered voters to bullet vote for just one candidate should not be that difficult. But, again, the problem of low voter turnout rears its ugly head.

There is evidence that some voters did indeed bullet vote. The four incumbents received 15,835 total votes from 3,959 voters, (15,835/4 = 3,959 voters). Since a total of 6,267 voters showed up to vote, 2,308 voters bullet voted for only one or two candidates, (6,267 – 3,959). There were a total of 20,907 votes cast, of which 15,835 votes went to the incumbents. Therefore, 5,072 votes were cast by 2,308 voters or 2.2 votes per voter.

A Plan for Challengers in Future Local Elections

In local elections a challenger candidate should build upon the 2,308 voters that seem to understand the strategy of bullet voting for one candidate. During an election campaign the challenger candidate should not be timid about asking a potential voter to "vote just for me, and discard your other three votes". Realistically, this is how candidates always campaign in a normal election that does not allow four votes per voter. So, why not campaign here in the same way? 'Vote Just for Me'.

Too often during local elections challenger candidates try not to sound selfish by asking a voter to "vote for me, and discard your remaining votes". This attitude is ridiculous, because in normal elections that is exactly what candidates ask of potential voters: "Please vote for me".

If a challenger candidate can recruit 4,000 voters, or 9% of the total registered voters, to bullet vote, it would be enough to get him or her elected. There is already a base of about 2,300 bullet voters out there in Arlington Heights.

Voter education on bullet voting is imperative if a challenger is to ever break the grip of the block vote, especially with low turnout in Arlington Heights. This, of course, will take much time as it is difficult enough to get voters to the polls much less communicate an esoteric voting strategy. But, the mantra of any challenger has always been to never give up as a long journey always begins with a single step.