Bullet Voting vs. Block Voting

There's a local election coming to Arlington Heights on April 7, 2015. In Arlington Heights the ballot will have candidates for the following offices; Village Trustee, Park District, Memorial Library Trustee, and District 214 School Board, District 25 Elementary School Board.

The following candidates are running for the Village Board: Carol Blackwood, Robin LaBedz, John Scaletta and Mike Sidor are the incumbents, D. Court Harris and Thomas Schwingbeck are the challengers. As usual the challengers will have an uphill climb trying to unseat incumbent trustees that have the benefit of Block voting.

Block voting is a term derived from the legal ability for a registered voter to cast more than one vote on the ballot. For example in the upcoming village election a voter may vote for four trustees: a total of four votes cast. The ballot will preface the voter with this instruction: “Vote for Not More than Four”. The ballot is not spoiled if the voter decides to vote for any number less than four votes.

Block voting comes into play when voters use all of their available votes on the ballot. That is, a block, or group, of voters use all four votes together on an agreed upon set of candidates. The effect of block voting is that a relatively small percentage of registered voters that consistently vote as a block will decide the outcome of an election.

Arlington Heights Voter Turnout

During the Illinois Governor election on November 4, 2014, 57% of Arlington Heights voters turned out to vote. For The U.S. Presidential election on November 6, 2012, 70% of Arlington Heights voters turned out. However, the last local election following an Illinois Governor election, with no village president or any referendums on the ballot, was April 5, 2011 when 13% of Arlington Heights voters turned out.

The upcoming local election has similar characteristics to that of April 5, 2011, as it follows an Illinois governor election with no village president or a referendum on the ballot. Using a turnout of 13% of the current 47,034 registered voters we can expect about 6,115 voters to show up at the local polls to vote for Village trustees.

An estimate of the 'block' is difficult to measure, but in the past it has been around 4,000 or 8.5% of the total registered voters. This group is loyal to the current administration or incumbent candidates. If this group votes as a block for administration endorsed candidates, they will start with 4,000 votes of the 6,115 voters, or 65% of the expected turnout. The other 2,115 will split their votes between all the candidates including the challengers of Harris and Schwingbeck.

The challenger candidates have little or no chance to ever catch up to the block of votes initially received by the administration endorsed or incumbent trustee candidates. As a result, these candidates receiving the initial block vote will have a very high probability of winning the election.

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To Affect Electoral Change Use Bullet Voting

Voters outside the loyal incumbent voting block (in our example approximately 2,115 voters) must realize that, to replace block endorsed or incumbent candidates, the voter must cast his or her votes to the challenger candidates only. By doing so, the challengers are in position to at least try to even the margin already given to the incumbent or block endorsed candidates.
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The four incumbent candidates have received the endorsement of the current administration and the Daily Herald so they can expect to get most of the block vote, in this case about 4,000 votes apiece.

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In an attempt to balance the block vote, voters should consider voting exclusively for just one or both of the challengers only. In other words, discard the remaining two or three votes. In this instance Harris and Schwingbeck might be able to make up the difference of block votes cast to the other candidates. This is called Bullet Voting.
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Unfortunately in an election where turnout is expected to be very low, a block vote is difficult to surpass even with a bullet voting strategy. For example, the block vote would have to dwindle to less than one half of the total expected turnout of 13% or 6,115 voters. If the voting block would shrink to 3,056, the two challengers would have to receive all of the remainder 3,057 as bullet votes. 
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This scenario is unlikely, as loyal block voters tend to show up in all elections. That means the expected block turnout will be closer to 4,000 voters. Plus, the incumbents will receive some crossover voting from the remainder of the 2,115 voters.

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All summed up for the upcoming election anyway, the incumbents or block endorsed candidates of Carol Blackwood, Robin LaBedz, John Scaletta and Mike Sidor, have a near 90% probability of winning re-election.

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The low turnout is a sad comment on our local democracy. Election reform should be a top priority of elected officials to encourage voter participation. Unfortunately, low voter turn out traditionally helps incumbent office holders: thus, there is no incentive for elected officials to fix it.

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Local politics is by proximity vital to your interests. Please ask friends and neighbors to come to the polls Tuesday, April 7.