How Hayes will win Village President, Part 1

Mr. Thomas W. Hayes, will easily win the upcoming Arlington Heights Village President election on April 9, 2013 over the two challengers, Mr. Ron Drake and Mr. Mark Hellner. The next blog post segments will focus on how Mr. Hayes will win the Village of Arlington Heights President.

Given what we know about local voter turnout following an US Presidential election, no controversial referendums on the ballot, two challengers and Mr. Hayes local political connections. Using a simple probability calculation at this point Mr. Hayes has a comfortable 82% chance of becoming the next Village President.

Since there is no run-off election in Arlington Heights which other candidate finishes second or third is moot.

Let us begin with the local voter turnout and Mr. Hayes election record.

Arlington Heights Voter Turnout

The voter turnout in Arlington Heights for past US President elections is about 73%. This November 2012 US President election voter turnout was 70% of the current 47,142 Arlington Heights registered voters. That is 32,999 Arlington Heights voters showed up to vote for US President and a controversial Park District referendum.

The voter turnout in Arlington Heights during local elections, however, with no controversial referendum on the ballot and following a US Presidential election is closer to 20%. Or expected on April 9, about 9,428 of the 47,142 registered voters will show up at the polls to cast votes for local officials. If a controversial referendum appeared on the ballot the local turnout has been as high as 46%.

But absent any local referendum, such as term limits, following a US President election and having three Village President candidates on the ballot we can reasonably expect about 20% turnout of Arlington Heights voters on April 9, 2013. In this case 23,571 voters, (32,999 - 9,428), that voted in November 2012 will not bother to show up for this local election.

Mr. Hayes Village Election Record

Mr. Hayes has been a Village Trustee since 1991 and is now running for Village President midway through his sixth trustee term. If Mr. Hayes loses the Village President election he will retain his Trustee seat until 2015, in which case he can run again for Trustee. There are no term limits in Arlington Heights.

Mr. Hayes has never lost an election. Each of the last four elections he has received an average of 4,655 votes regardless of Village registered voters. This consistent number of votes represents the Mulder Block of reliable voters that can be depended upon for their incumbents and chosen replacements. This amount is enough to beat any legitimate new comer or challenger. See Block Voting vs. Bullet Voting on this Blog, 12/22/2010.

Also Mr. Hayes has never opened an Illinois State Board of Election (ISBE) election committee that monitors his campaign finances. This says that Mr.Hayes does not spend or collect more than $3,000 on his campaign. Unusual given that Mrs. Mulder could spend as much as $6,402 on unopposed campaigns alone, such as in 1997. As in past elections Mr. Hayes is so confident of victory he believes that no investment above $3,000 is needed to win.

Now if we put all of the above together. A 20% turnout on 47,142 registered voters or 9,428 total votes and Mr. Hayes should get at least 4,655 of those votes. The other two Village President candidates, Mr. Drake and Mr. Hellner will fight over and split at most 4,773 votes to help Mr. Hayes win the election.

The next post will discuss Mr. Hayes, the Ethical One, that blocked a term limits referendum from the ballot and how this maneuver will help him win the election.