Hayes, The Ethical One: "No, on Referendum", Part 2

In Part 1, 'How Hayes will win Village President', was based upon expected low voter turnout in Arlington Heights that hugely favors his election. Part 2 describes what Mr. Hayes, as Trustee, did to help himself win the election.

Term Limits Referendum Not on the Ballot

Local referendums on the ballot will increase voter turnout. In 1995 a gambling referendum was on the ballot and local turnout was 46%. In 1999 downtown development was unofficially on the ballot in the candidates listed, Hayes was included, turnout was 24%. In 2005 a school referendum was on the ballot and voter turnout was 27%. Clearly referendums bring out local voters.

With no referendum on the ballot local turnout has been about 20% and as low as 12.7%. As demonstrated previously in Part 1 (How Hayes will win Village President), with a 20% turnout Hayes can expect at least 4,655 votes and the two challengers will split at most 4,773 votes. This is based upon 20% of the 47,142 of current Arlington Heights registered voters. As a result Mr. Hayes enjoys high probability of election as Village President with no referendum on the ballot.

On January 7 Mr. Bill Gnech submitted a petition to place a referendum of term limits on the April 9 ballot. On January 14 the Village Electoral Board moved to remove that referendum from the local ballot. The Electoral Board consists of  Village Clerk Becky Hume, Village President Arlene Mulder and Trustee Thomas Hayes.

Mr. Hayes, the Ethical One, somehow justified to himself that to be recused from the electoral board was not necessary. Term limits in Arlington Heights will not be on the ballot thanks in part to his 'no' vote three times.

Mr. Hayes ruled to ignore clear voter intent and not include ‘term limits’ on the ballot. He could have recognized the spirit of the voter intent by moving to draft a term limits question anyway or to recuse himself from the electoral board.

But it appears that Mr. Hayes would rather have a low voter turnout with no referendum on the ballot. He is clearly aware that a low voter turnout increases the probability of his election. He chose to increase his chances of election rather than to represent what the Village residents wanted to address.

The next part will discuss how Mr. Hayes' local political connections will contribute to his high probability of election to Village President.