Status Quo All Over Again

The local Village election in Arlington Heights is Tuesday, April 9. The candidates for Village Board are incumbents Mr. Norman Breyer, Mr. Joseph Farwell, Mr. Thomas Glasgow, Mr. Bert Rosenberg, and long time Design Commission member Mr. Jim Tinaglia. The Village President candidates are Mr. Thomas Hayes, Mr. Ron Drake and Mr. Mark Hellner.

Arlington Heights Voter Turnout

The voter turnout in Arlington Heights during past US President elections is usually about 73%. This November 2012 election voter turnout was 70%.

However, the voter turnout in Arlington Heights during local elections, with no controversial referendum on the ballot, is closer to 20%. The three-way Village President race, after 20 long years of Mrs. Mulder, may incite a higher voter turnout maybe closer to 24%. Or if as expected about 11,530 of the 48,043 registered voters will cast ballots in this local election.

Election Results Just In

Mr. Hayes has never lost an election. Each of the last four elections he has received a steady 4,655 votes regardless of the number of Village registered voters. This consistent number of votes represents the Mulder Block of reliable voters that can be depended upon for their incumbents and chosen replacements. Generally this block is enough to insure that any legitimate new comer or challenger will not be elected. See Block Voting vs. Bullet Voting on this Blog, 12/22/2010.

Mrs. Mulder and the Daily Herald have fervently endorsed Mr. Hayes and the four incumbent Trustees. This persuades the Mulder Block of reliable voters for them. Therefore Mr. Hayes will begin with at least 4,655 votes. The remaining 6,875 votes (11,530 - 4,655) will be split between all three President candidates.

Even if Mr. Hayes garners only 30% of the remaining 6,875 votes he will have at least 6,718 total votes. Mr. Drake and Mr. Hellner will then share at most the remaining 4,812 votes. Second place finish is mute due to winner take all and no run off election.

With a probability of about 82% Mr. Hayes will be the next Village President. Unfortunately the four incumbent trustees will also be back on the Village board.

P.S. The obvious path for a real challenge to Mr. Hayes is either Mr. Drake or Mr. Hellner to drop out of the race and then realize a high voter turnout. Both are unlikely events.